The role of UK policing in economic growth
- samuelcraigie
- Jun 24
- 4 min read
Consulting Report
Samantha Cunningham, Executive Director
Tuesday 24 June 2025
Click here to read the full report: The role of policing in UK economic growth
Commissioned by the Office of the National Police Chief Scientific Adviser, Crest undertook research into the role of UK policing in economic growth. The research sought to understand what evidence exists, as well as conceptualise the links, both evidence and hypothetical, between policing activities and economic impacts. This included recommendations to improve the evidence base and a logic model, which we hope can be used in a policing context to better evaluate economic impacts in the future. This work was completed in partnership with RSM Consulting.
Our key findings
Does Policing contribute to UK economic growth?
Evidence in this area is sparse. This evidence does not provide an estimate of the scale of impact of UK policing as a percentage contribution to economic growth - this is not a simple question to answer and will require further data collection and analysis beyond the scope of this research.
Much of the UK-specific research focuses on the cost of crime or the cost savings generated through policing activity. Evidence on the costs of crime provide the opportunity to discuss policing in the context of preventing or avoiding these costs, while cost-savings underpin the value of policing, especially in the context of reducing public spending pressure elsewhere.
Impacts of the costs of crime:
There is an opportunity to take a broader research focus that considers the relationship of policing to economic outcomes set out in our logic model, thinking about the impact of policing on outcomes such as productivity, employment, consumer spending, business confidence and technological innovation. We have made a number of recommendations in the report, which we think will help develop the evidence base - the most important is to develop a national framework for implementing an economic evaluation that could be implemented in police forces when considering a particular operation/ intervention. The framework would build on the College of Policing’s crime reduction toolkit, and use our logic model to be piloted/tested with a small number of police forces who are in the process of designing an operation/ intervention.
What is the link between policing activities and economic growth if so? What is the value added by policing to the economy?
Logic Model conceptualising the links between policing activities, economic outcomes and economic impacts
Our logic model sets out a number of links between policing and economic outcomes, suggesting key areas where policing can add value.
Employment and productivity: If people are not involved in crime, as offenders or victims, there are benefits to employment and productivity, both in the immediate aftermath and in the long-term. For example, if individuals have to take time off work as a result of becoming a victim of a crime, this will amount to lost productivity.
Avoiding costs: If people are not involved in crimes involving their property, economic loss is avoided. There are a number of costs that are also avoided by preventing crimes from happening - these costs often fall on other public services such as the National Health Service. For example, if a victim sustains injury through being physically assaulted, the costs of treatment will be incurred upon the NHS.(1) If the offender is prosecuted, this will have further costs for the CPS and for HMCTS.
Enabling investment: If people and communities are safer - due a reduced fear of crime - individuals place more value in living in these communities, and businesses place more value in operating in them. This is demonstrated by the example of Operation Vulcan, an intervention designed to counter counterfeit goods crime in Greater Manchester, whereby the impact of dismantling crime led to £300 million of new local investment in the area.
Promoting innovation: Policing also is a key user, and sometimes developer, of science and technology. Its procurement and research and development through policing has the potential to drive innovation and the development of goods and services. The NPCC’s Science and Technology Strategy sets out a clear role for academic and industry from a research and development perspective, with policing’s role to deliver clear science and technology requirements providing demand requirements which can in turn stimulate innovation, investment and growth.
What form does economic growth take in relation to policing impacts?
Contributions to GDP: If people are more productive, if investment and innovation drives the production of goods and services, if policing is innovative and supports the development of science and technology, policing has the potential to contribute to the growth of Gross Domestic Product.
Mitigating reductions in GDP caused by crime: There is evidence that directly links increases in crime rates to reductions in GDP, in particular during times when the economy is performing poorly. Given the evidence that policing reduces crime, policing activities can therefore mitigate the negative impact crime levels might have on GDP.
Reduced public spending: if responding to and preventing crime avoids costs felt elsewhere, including by other public sector services, policing has the potential to reduce public sector spending pressure. with this additional capital being freed up to spend or invest in ways that stimulate economic growth.
Improved individual welfare: This is a measure of the monetary value placed on societal outcomes achieved by policing, such as the reduced financial and emotional harm experienced by victims of crime. If people feel safer, their value of living in their local communities is improved.
(1) Heeks, M., Reed, S., Tafsiri, M., & Prince, S. (2018). The economic and social costs of crime: second edition. Home Office.
Samantha is our Executive Director (Strategy) and has responsibility for Crest’s consulting practice.
If you would like to discuss this research please contact her on samantha.cunningham@crestadvisory.com
