The fraying social contract and its implications for national preparedness
- Jul 15
- 3 min read
Insights report
Expert contributor: Dame Sara Khan, Senior Advisor, supported by James Stott, Head of Strategy and Policy, Madeline Rolfe, Senior Strategy and Insight Manager, and Teresa Hulme, Senior Analyst
Wednesday 15th July 2026
A new report, published by the National Preparedness Commission, has found that the social contract - the relationship between citizens and their government - in the United Kingdom is fraying and that weakening trust is increasingly being exploited by bad-faith actors to deepen social divisions and worsen crises.
The report, ‘The Fraying Social Contract and its Implications for National Preparedness’, authored by Dame Sara Khan and supported by Crest Insights, draws on an evidence review of open-source material, 12 semi-structured interviews with experts, and two expert roundtables. It examines how the erosion of trust between citizens and institutions is being weaponised, and models three crisis scenarios - a natural disaster, a constitutional or political crisis, and a security crisis - to assess the UK's preparedness for the way such events can be exploited or engineered by malign actors.
Over the last ten years, the threat to the United Kingdom posed by extremists, hostile foreign actors and bad-faith actors has grown in both scale and diversity, and the nature of the threat has evolved in ways that make it harder to identify and counter. The report highlighted:
Prevent referrals have hit a record high: In 2024/25, the number of referrals to Prevent was 8,778; this was the highest number of referrals to Prevent in any year – and an increase of 1,856 referrals from 6,922 the previous year. The range of ideologies and movements posing a threat has also expanded, encompassing far-right extremism, Islamist extremism, Incel subculture, and increasingly, individuals displaying ‘mixed, unstable or unclear ideology’.
The rise of ‘com networks’: 'Com networks' are online networks of predominantly teenage boys seeking to inflict harm and engaging in a range of criminality without a unifying ideology
Harmful content has become more prevalent, more accessible and more difficult to distinguish from legitimate discourse: The use of social media, gaming platforms, influencers, and creative tools such as memes has made divisive narratives more engaging, while algorithms amplify harmful content and generative artificial intelligence has lowered barriers to its production
The monetisation of social media: Experts who took part in a roundtable as part of this research highlighted how there is also an increasing threat from bad-faith actors who are spreading misinformation and disinformation purely for financial gain or to build online influence.
This pattern can be seen across a range of recent incidents. For example, in the aftermath of the stabbing of Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast in June 2026, footage of the incident was widely shared on social media and was accompanied by false images of the victim. The subsequent spread of this online content has been associated with disorder in the city.
While experts told researchers they broadly expect the UK's emergency responders to manage the immediate response to a crisis well, the report warns of a risk of complacency about longer-term preparedness – particularly around underestimating how misinformation and disinformation can worsen a crisis once it is underway. False and misleading information from malign actors creates immediate operational challenges for responders, the report finds, as well as longer-term risks that can further erode public trust.
The report's authors argue that the weakening of the social contract should be treated as a chronic, strategic threat rather than simply a challenge that requires tactical measures Addressing this, the authors say, requires sustained, long-term investment in public trust, resilience and social cohesion, with democratic resilience treated as a core, cross-departmental component of national preparedness.
Dame Sara Khan DBE, expert contributor and Senior Advisor, Crest Advisory, said:
“Trust between citizens in the UK and the state is fraying, with distrust in politicians and the institutions they represent on the rise. Extremists, hostile foreign actors and bad-faith actors are exploiting this erosion, with the rapid spread of misinformation and disinformation online creating the perfect storm of opportunities to weaponise social divisions and worsen crises.
“Crest Advisory and I have set out three crisis scenarios – flooding, a contested election, and the assassination of a political figure – which capture the speed and scale at which misinformation and disinformation can be exploited, or even engineered, by malign actors. Yet, we found current Whitehall policy fails to treat the information environment as a core, integral component of crisis preparedness and national resilience planning, creating a risk of complacency. The government must view the weakening social contract as a chronic, strategic threat to our democracy. Addressing this challenge requires sustained, cross-departmental investment to strengthen public trust, resilience and social cohesion.”
